The Us Isn’t Ready For A Major Two-theater War. How Can We Prepare?

Sen. Mike Rounds: “We person to person an summation successful nan ongoing defense budget. We are astatine a clip successful which if we ever get into a superior conflict, we will person a conflict successful much than 1 theater. We are not prepared for that today. We’ve sewage to hole for it, and that intends caller technologies, caller capabilities, and a batch much successful our successful our capacities successful position of conscionable nan magnitude of ammo that we’ve sewage disposable and nan types of systems that we’ve sewage successful bid to respond to 2 very fierce adversaries who are investing successful their militaries.”

Ray: Is nan United States fresh for a two-theater war? Senator Mike Rounds, a elder personnel of nan Armed Services Committee says No! Let’s get immoderate much discourse connected this – 

Joining america now is Matthew Shoemaker, a erstwhile intelligence serviceman pinch nan Defense Intelligence Agency, Matt, do you work together pinch nan Senator’s assessment?  

Matthew Shoemaker:

Short answer, benignant of. built into his mobility are a full batch of assumptions that he’s making. One of nan assumptions that he benignant of alludes to is if we get into 1 war, we’re truthful gonna get into a mates aliases a fewer wars. That’s an assumption. There is nary guarantee that that’s gonna happen, right? But he is 100 % right. with regards to his comments astir really we request much artillery production. We request much accumulation pinch regards to, know, difficult hit, if you will, pinch regards to subject instrumentality and materiel. He’s not incorrect astir that astatine all. A batch of our worldly is simply a batch older than what our adversaries specified arsenic China successful peculiar is making. So we surely request an influx successful accumulation capacity pinch regards to that. and different constituent to it arsenic good is, you know, is nan solution really conscionable propulsion much money astatine nan problem? I americium of nan sentiment that that’s not nan solution and that what DOD really needs to do, they really request to spell into their books. They request immoderate benignant of independent organization, whether it’s DOGE, whether it’s personification else, personification different than subject and subject contracting group who are going to use from this strategy to look astatine those numbers and look astatine nan budget. and say, are these elements that we presently have, is that really necessary? Can we prevention that money and put it into a much useful spot elsewhere alternatively than conscionable propulsion much money astatine nan problem?

Ray: So you conscionable said throwing much money astatine nan problem whitethorn not beryllium nan answer. Let’s put that into perspective. In 2024, nan national authorities spent $1.6 trillion connected discretionary fund items. So that covers everything different than medicare, medicaid and societal security. Of that $1.6 trillion – they spent $842 cardinal connected defense programs and $750 cardinal connected virtually everything else. How do we still person a readiness rumor erstwhile we walk that overmuch money connected nan military? 

Matthew Shoemaker: You know, I inquire myself that mobility each azygous time up until astir past year, erstwhile they alleviated this problem that I’m astir to articulate a spot up until past year. The estimation coming retired of DOD itself was that astir 20 to 25 percent of each subject unit were either nutrient insecure aliases astatine consequence of being nutrient insecure. So, you know, that begs nan question.

What successful nan world are we spending our money on? And that’s why I travel to nan conclusion that throwing much money astatine a problem is not nan solution. It’s really we’re spending that money. And nan Pentagon has a large problem because it’s, you know, nan Fox guarding nan hen location successful position of who these group are that make decisions astir wherever nan money goes to, what requirements are for nan money. You know, batch of these three, 4 prima generals and admirals, arsenic soon arsenic they get retired of nan military, they spell and they activity for defense contractors. You know, connected nan 1 hand, they’ve sewage a batch of institutionalized knowledge. They cognize exactly, you know, successful theory, what is needed and who to talk to astir that. So from nan much affirmative and affirmative presumption broadside of things, you know, location is simply a worth successful that. But connected nan antagonistic broadside of it is that’s a awesome spot for corruption arsenic well. So, you know, there’s a batch of issues that DOD needs to tackle erstwhile it comes to monetary issues. and providing for a world-class subject is expensive. So let’s beryllium clear, to beryllium nan best, you sewage to walk to beryllium nan best. So it’s going to beryllium expensive, but we sewage to make judge that we’re getting nan champion bang for our buck. And I do not deliberation that that’s nan lawsuit astatine this constituent successful time.

RAY

Ray: You and nan Senator besides mentioned modernization. As an example, Houthi Rebels were utilizing drones which costs an estimated $2,000 to onslaught commercialized vessels successful nan Red Sea – nan Navy was shooting those drones down pinch missiles that costs $2 cardinal a piece. In summation Houthi rebels successful Yemen person utilized missiles estimated to beryllium successful nan 5 fig scope to sprout down six MQ-9 reaper drones that costs $30 cardinal a piece. Should nan US beryllium utilizing these advanced, costly technologies to return retired rudimentary weapons? 

Matthew Shoemaker:

You know, that really is simply a accuracy mobility much than thing successful position of what we want nan accuracy of our subject to be. Do we want to make nan determination to spell towards a precocious number strategy that mightiness costs very little? So for example, we bargain a ton of very mini drones and let’s opportunity they’re kamikaze type drones aliases truthful that mightiness costs for illustration a cardinal dollars aliases truthful per strategy and past conscionable flood nan area pinch it. That is simply a type of accuracy mobility that we person to inquire astir what we want our subject to beryllium that surely would successful mentation astatine slightest protect a batch of lives, particularly pinch regards to our pilots and such. And it would beryllium a bully bang for nan subordinate whether aliases not we person nan governmental will to execute that. I don’t deliberation it’s location astatine nan moment. It’s not portion of nan governmental chat pinch regards to nan military. It is benignant of connected nan beneath nan aboveground constituent to it, but there’s ever a batch of money flowing done these things. And erstwhile a strategy for illustration nan F-35 tin costs upwards of $150 cardinal per item, location are batch of very precocious floor plan individuals and precocious floor plan companies that want to make judge that they get their voices heard. to make judge that they tin nutrient those sorts of things. So, you know, it really comes down to governmental will. I dream we tin yet get there. The truth that we’re moreover having this chat astir that I deliberation is helpful. So hopefully 1 time we tin get there. don’t deliberation we’re location conscionable yet.

RAY: 

Now fto maine spell backmost to what we started talking astir successful nan first spot – What makes a state prepared for a two-theater war? 

Matthew Shoemaker:

Yeah, truthful wrong that mobility is going to person to beryllium a full batch of assumptions made astir what that two-third theatre warfare looks like, who it’s going to be, what clip of twelvemonth it mightiness start, what nan objectives of that two-theater warfare mightiness be, and what nan capabilities of that, you know, those hypothetical countries are successful bid to tackle that. So you sewage to make a full batch of readying assumptions. in bid to do that. conscionable for nan liking of argument, if we wanted to take, for example, for illustration a Russia-China-US war, that’s going to beryllium very different from, let’s say, a North Korea-Iran style 2 theatre war. So pinch regards to that, China, you’re going to focus, astatine slightest successful nan first stages, their capabilities and their focus, which is going to beryllium anti-access area denial of nan South and East China Sea, example, astir likely, successful which lawsuit that’s going to beryllium very heavy Navy oriented and to a definite grade Air Force versus a European theatre style war, which is what we planned for for nan amended portion of nan Cold War, which was very dense pinch regards to nan army. those are, really you tackle each of those is simply a awesome exercise successful subject planning, let’s put it that way. But wrong that arsenic well, I deliberation nan Russian penetration of Ukraine plays a really bully illustration successful position of nan domiciled and nan worth of readying for whether it beryllium an penetration aliases conscionable a subject cognition itself. Because if you retrieve successful February 2022, nan Russians attempted to unfastened up a three-pronged onslaught into Ukraine. It was going to spell from nan east, nan north, down into Kyiv and past to a definite grade from nan from southeast they were trying to do a 3 pincer attack type thing. Going done that itself, having each constituent that you adhd to it, each guidance that you’re trying to onslaught from, that requires an extended magnitude of planning, extended magnitude of logistics and logistical readying to make judge that your warfighters person nan instrumentality they request and nan replenishments that they request erstwhile they request it.

Matthew Shoemaker 

in a quickly and timely way. obviously, since we’re still talking astir this 3 years later, and Russians haven’t achieved their objectives, they intelligibly either did not scheme accordingly, aliases they didn’t return into relationship that nan force ever has a opportunity successful nan process arsenic well. So they weren’t capable to pivot erstwhile necessary. So each of that is simply a awesome learning experience, astatine nan very slightest for nan Americans of immoderate a 2 theatre warfare is going to look like, you sewage to scheme for illustration crazy successful bid to

do it and you sewage to make assumptions successful bid to scheme it. And past connected apical of it, you request nan governmental will and nan governmental broadside of things to really springiness you nan instrumentality and nan worldly that you request successful bid to supply options if that 2 pronged attack is ever necessary. So there’s a batch of issues successful location that could, that’s surely 1 logic why having a world-class subject is truthful expensive.

because you now person to scheme for each these things, particularly now that nan adversaries themselves are getting amended and spending much money connected their ain military. So there’s a full batch of factors progressive successful each of this.

Ray: You conscionable mentioned a conflict pinch China would beryllium reliant connected nan Navy and Air Force. So nan Navy is trying to grow it’s warfare vessel fleet from 295 coming to 390 by 2054. The Air Force is trying to switch nan F-22 Raptor pinch a adjacent procreation combatant successful nan 2030s. In some those cases you spot it’s going to return years aliases decades. Adversaries aren’t going to hold for america to beryllium fresh – surely China isn’t going to hold for nan US to move connected Taiwan. So while those programs are underway, what do you do successful nan meantime? 

Matthew Shoemaker:

Yeah, truthful conscionable for a small spot of clarity connected that too, know, built into your, you know, nan mobility a small spot is nan presumption that it’s only nan US and only China. In which lawsuit that is simply a large problem, right? In nan consciousness of China has very circumstantial goals that they want to execute successful theory, pinch regards to their subject and pinch regards to their Navy, i.e. anti-access area denial of nan East. and South China Sea. So that’s very constricted successful scope successful what they do. The United States has world commitments, of course, successful which lawsuit nan United States is very difficult pressed, let’s say, to attraction each of its resources conscionable connected nan East and South China Seas, whereas China has a overmuch easier clip of doing that. In which case, and 1 logic why we’ve seen complete nan past number of years, nan United States scope retired to countries specified arsenic Japan, Philippines, Australia is an effort to augment nan American capabilities. So successful nan arena that nan United States and China ever do spell into a shooting conflict, that nan United States tin tie connected resources and friends successful nan area that number one, cognize nan area a batch better. They person their ain resources comparatively adjacent to theatre itself. And successful which lawsuit nan United States tin now augment its ain capabilities and enactment arsenic a unit multiplier alternatively than conscionable person nan United States, which has, you know, astatine most, you know, 350 ships aliases truthful versus nan Chinese, which person upwards of, I deliberation successful position of their existent Navy capabilities, location 4 aliases 500 now, I’d person to cheque nan nonstop number since it’s changing each day, but they’re each focusing, nan Chinese are each focusing successful that, you know, very constricted area. So nan United States is focusing astatine slightest successful mentation connected augmenting and being a unit multiplier pinch its allies. So nan United States doesn’t needfully request to beyou know, successful position of being counting par for par pinch nan Chinese Navy if we attraction alternatively connected unit multiplication pinch our allies.

Ray: So last mobility – you’ve mentioned aggregate times you person to presume definite scenarios erstwhile planning, which intends to maine that nan subject has to beryllium fresh for anything. You deliberation astir times successful history for illustration Lend-Lease during World War Two wherever nan United States was not prepared and beautiful overmuch needed each capable assemblage to meet nan moment. Do you deliberation nan United States is prepared to do that if necessary? 

Matthew Shoemaker: “So subject readying itself is, I think, 1 of nan captious elements of immoderate modern military. I myself was not a subject planner, contempt nan magnitude of clip that I’ve spent discussing it connected this interview. I person a awesome woody of respect for nan subject planners, though. And 1 point that I did study from them on nan measurement was that you’re ne'er going to beryllium capable to make a cleanable plan. Because arsenic I besides mentioned, nan force ever has a say.

in these things and it’s intolerable to scheme for each azygous contingency. Having said that though, what nan United States is capable to do, particularly by having these plans successful place, moreover if they’re imperfect plans, is having nan institutionalized knowledge of really to deliberation quickly connected your feet, really to scheme quickly erstwhile things do spell sideways truthful you tin correct for it. And successful position of whether aliases not nan United States tin ramp up production, to conflict a 2 beforehand war. That unfortunately, and you usage Lend-Lease arsenic an example, which I deliberation is simply a awesome example. If I retrieve my history correctly, nan United States really only jumped into things and ramped up its subject accumulation erstwhile worldly deed nan instrumentality and erstwhile nan United States sewage involved. So I deliberation from nan measurement that nan American governmental strategy is and really it has been historically going back, however galore decades aliases hundreds of years that you want to spell is that, you know, until there’s a problem, very seldom do we put nan measurement that we astir apt should. But erstwhile there’s a problem, we have, astatine slightest up until this point, ever risen to nan challenge. So I deliberation we surely tin lick immoderate problem that we’re associated pinch based disconnected of, you know, nan humanities illustration of america doing so. It’s not guaranteed, of course, but hopefully we’ll get 1 time wherever we were capable to plan accordingly truthful that we don’t get to nan business wherever we person to drawback up erstwhile problems really arise. So we’ll see. That’s really what it comes down to, unfortunately.

Ray:

Matt, convey you very much. admit your time. Great interview. And I’ll beryllium judge to nonstop it to you erstwhile I sewage it published.