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In nan arena of a full-scale warfare pinch India, Pakistan’s subject mightiness not past beyond nan opening salvo.
That’s not a strategical appraisal from a overseas deliberation tank—it’s a declare made by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, who warned that nan Pakistan Army could tally retired of substance successful conscionable 4 days.
At first glance, it sounds dramatic. But excavation deeper into Pakistan’s economy, fuel-starved military, and widening proviso concatenation cracks, and nan image becomes acold much alarming—and disturbingly credible.
Fuel shortage
Pakistan’s equipped forces are reportedly grappling pinch acute shortages of fuel, oil, lubricants, and moreover nutrient rations. This has been corroborated by aggregate sources, including reports from nan crushed and intelligence intercepts from nan Line of Control, wherever Pakistani troops person reportedly complained astir reduced rations and substance allocations.
Military exercises person already been trim back, and proviso lines are stretched thin. The result: a weakening of operational readiness astatine a clip erstwhile geopolitical tensions are dangerously high.
Independent analysts and erstwhile subject officers now estimate that nether existent conditions, Pakistan’s substance and ammunition reserves whitethorn past conscionable 3 to 4 days successful nan arena of a full-scale conflict.
This marks a steep diminution from earlier capabilities and is straight linked to nan country’s deteriorating fiscal health. As of early 2025, Pakistan’s overseas speech reserves are conscionable complete $15 billion, hardly capable to screen 3 months of civilian imports. Defence logistics are not astatine nan beforehand of that queue.
Crushing debt
Add to that nan country’s crushing outer indebtedness of complete $131 billion, and nan image becomes moreover starker. IMF bailouts person kept nan system afloat, but pinch conditions that time off small room for defence spending. In fact, nan subject fund has already been scaled down, moreover arsenic Pakistan continues to struggle pinch inflation, indebtedness servicing, and basal import needs.
While Pakistan’s system has shown immoderate signs of stabilization—with GDP maturation forecast astatine 2.7–2.8% for FY2025 and ostentation easing to astir 7–8%—this betterment is vulnerable and conditional. It relies heavy connected nan IMF and connected outer lenders continuing to merchandise funds. A warfare would derail that equilibrium almost immediately.
Further complicating Pakistan’s strategical position is nan general suspension of nan Indus Waters Treaty by India—a landmark statement that, until now, had survived moreover erstwhile conflicts. With nan pact nary longer successful force, Pakistan faces contiguous threats to its h2o supply, peculiarly for agriculture. A disruption successful irrigation could lead to nutrient shortages and further spike inflation, hitting nan agrarian system and societal stableness astatine a clip of heightened nationalist stress.
Can it spend war?
These aren’t conscionable speculative risks. Credit standing agency Moody’s, which presently rates Pakistan astatine Caa2, a heavy speculative grade, has explicitly stated that Pakistan “can’t spend a warfare pinch India.” In its latest assessment, Moody’s warns that immoderate subject escalation would severely wounded Pakistan’s maturation trajectory, undermine its efforts astatine fiscal consolidation, and woody a awesome rustle to macroeconomic stability. The study further adds that Pakistan’s entree to outer financing—already narrow—would beryllium impaired, arsenic world lenders go wary of backing a war-torn system connected nan brink of collapse.
Hard numbers
The consequences would not extremity astatine macroeconomic indicators. As of 2023, complete 37% of Pakistan’s organization already lived successful poverty, and much than 3 cardinal group had been pushed beneath nan poorness statement since 2018. A warfare would trigger wide occupation losses, accelerate inflation, and push millions much into utmost poverty. Pakistan’s use system—already nether strain and heavy reliant connected programs for illustration nan Benazir Income Support Programme and informal organization networks—would apt illness nether wartime pressure.
The Indus hit
Agriculture, which contributes 23% to Pakistan’s GDP and supports 68% of nan agrarian population, would beryllium among nan first casualties. Even earlier conflict, Pakistan classed 102 retired of 128 countries connected nan International Hunger Index. With India suspending nan Indus Waters Treaty, irrigation supplies would autumn sharply, threatening harvest yields, nutrient proviso chains, and agrarian employment. Compounded by Pakistan’s already inadequate h2o retention infrastructure, immoderate disruption would quickly go catastrophic. War would besides destruct carrier networks, break down nutrient distribution channels, and substance contiguous shortages of wheat, sugar, and different essentials. Previous crises person shown that astir half of nan organization already struggles pinch nutrient insecurity—this number would spike overnight.
Even if fighting ceases, betterment would beryllium slow, fragmented, and limited connected world aid. Pakistan’s system already leans heavy connected IMF bailouts and bilateral support. A warfare would apt consequence successful superior flight, a illness of investor confidence, and a worsening balance-of-payments crisis. India has already signaled that it whitethorn reason early IMF loans to Pakistan, citing nationalist information concerns and nan misuse of funds.
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