'no Mega Money Ahead, Only Moderate Gains Likely From Here': Icici Pru Cio Sankaran Naren

After 4 years of beardown equity performance, ICICI Prudential CIO Sankaran Naren is tempering expectations. Speaking connected existent marketplace valuations and nan broader investing climate, Naren, successful a podcast pinch Groww, said investors should brace for only mean returns successful nan agelong word — and decidedly not “mega money".

"What Marks says is that you person to deliberation — what are you trying to do? Do you deliberation you're going to make mega money from here? Are you going to effort to forestall nonaccomplishment of money from here?” Naren said, referring to investor Howard Marks' philosophy. "I judge we are successful a business wherever you tin make mean money complete nan agelong word from here. You can't make mega money. To make mega money you request very inexpensive valuations and you request fear. You neither person inexpensive valuations nor do you person utmost fear."

He stressed that while large-cap valuations person cooled off, mid- and small-cap segments stay importantly overvalued. “That doesn't mean that thing needs to fall,” he said, “but conscionable because a marketplace is overvalued doesn't mean it needs to autumn either.”

Naren besides said that caller FII trading had brought large-cap overvaluation nether control. But nan early people of nan marketplace remains uncertain. "We don't moreover cognize what US authorities argumentation is going to beryllium complete nan adjacent 2 to 3 years," he noted. "Markets are analyzable things, really they will play complete nan adjacent fewer years is not clear."

Asked astir young investors who entered nan marketplace aft 2020, Naren suggested a mindset reset was essential. "I started investing successful 1989. 1989 to 1994 was 1 of nan biggest bull markets successful Indian superior marketplace history. It is for illustration 2020 to 2024. I was nether nan belief that markets will ever springiness you large returns. It didn't springiness from 1994 to 2004. For almost 9 years, nan markets gave zero returns.”

He said existent investors should beryllium wary of assuming that beardown past capacity guarantees early gains. “If investors deliberation that equity marketplace is ever going to springiness you mega returns, past they are wholly mistaken. They person not seen markets.”

He drew parallels to nan US tech marketplace arsenic well. “Certainly it happened successful US successful '90s. But do you cognize betwixt 2000 and 2012, US NASDAQ gave zero return virtually?” he said. "Mega money tin beryllium made successful shorter periods of time. And if excessively overmuch money is made past you tin person a play of subpar returns."

Naren concluded pinch a connection for semipermanent investors: "Just because you want nan marketplace to springiness large returns doesn't mean nan marketplace is going to springiness you large returns."
 

Published on: Apr 22, 2025 6:32 PM IST