New Cold Front? Kashmir Standoff Raises Specter Of Us-china Proxy Fight

The hostilities betwixt India and Pakistan complete nan contested territory of Kashmir are igniting fears that a localized skirmish could boil complete into a wider conflict and frighten nan stableness of nan region.

Watching intimately is China and President Xi Jinping, a statement to nan Kashmir conflict pinch a liking successful nan outcome.

"For China, nan stakes are high. Pakistan is its closest ally, and Beijing would not for illustration to spot it humiliated," Sadanand Dhume, elder chap astatine nan American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told Fox News Digital.

"Seen done nan prism of U.S.-China competition, each state has a 'side' successful this conflict. China is joined astatine nan hep pinch Pakistan, whereas nan U.S. and India person grown progressively adjacent complete nan past 2 decades," Dhume added.

PAKISTAN FEARS INDIA INCURSION 'IMMINENT' AMID HEIGHTENED TENSIONS FOLLOWING TERROR ATTAC

President Donald Trump, right, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shingle hands during a news convention successful nan East Room of nan White House successful Washington, D.C., connected Feb. 13. (Photo/Alex Brandon)

The U.S. warfare successful Afghanistan aft 9/11 created a dependence connected Pakistan’s military and intelligence that required adjacent cooperation. Since nan withdrawal from Afghanistan successful 2021, U.S. engagement pinch Pakistan has been constricted and Islamabad has little relevance for Washington’s overseas argumentation aims.

Max Abrahms, an master connected coercion astatine Northeastern University, told Fox News Digital that nan conflict complete Kashmir could now go a venue for U.S.-China competition.

"The India-Pakistan conflict whitethorn look arsenic a proxy warfare wherever India is backed by nan U.S. and Pakistan is backed by China," Abrahms said.

Yigal Carmon, president of nan Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) and a erstwhile counterterrorism advisor to nan Israeli government, told Fox News Digital that Kashmir is not conscionable a conflict betwixt India and Pakistan. If nan warfare escalates, he said, it could lead to nan dismantling of Pakistan and person repercussions successful Afghanistan, Iran and China.

Indian constabulary officers guidelines defender astatine a checkpoint adjacent Pahalgam successful southbound Kashmir aft assailants indiscriminately opened fired astatine visitors visiting Pahalgam, Indian-controlled Kashmir, connected April 22. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)

"Balochistan whitethorn soon get a de-facto independence. China will beryllium 1 of nan main losers of specified a development, arsenic it has heavy invested successful nan Gwadar Port, located successful nan Balochistan state of Pakistan," Carmon said.

New Delhi launched retaliatory strikes against Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir pursuing a deadly attack connected visitors successful nan disputed Jammu and Kashmir region connected April 22 that saw 26 group killed by terrorists.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged a forceful response, saying nan perpetrators will beryllium pursued till nan "ends of nan earth."

TRUMP OFFERS TO HELP INDIA, PAKISTAN AMID GROWING CONFLICT: ‘I WANT TO SEE THEM STOP’

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, hugs Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari astatine a signing ceremonial successful nan Great Hall of nan People successful Beijing connected Feb. 5. (Wu Hao HAO/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

How acold Pakistan will target India is uncertain, but Pakistan’s military, which yields important power successful Pakistani politics, will apt want to exert a powerful consequence and debar immoderate appearances that nan state looks weak.

"If Pakistan suffers a humiliating defeat, it would weaken nan military’s grip connected nan country," AEI’s Dhume said.

Dhume besides said that immoderate conflict that unravels Pakistan’s home stableness would springiness a boost to separatist groups successful Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces who person agelong sought independency from Pakistan.

PAKISTAN CALLS INDIA'S STRIKES AN ‘ACT OF WAR’ AND CLAIMS IT SHOT DOWN INDIAN FIGHTER JETS

Chietigj Bajpaee, elder investigation chap for South Asia astatine Chatham House, said that India will effort to guarantee that nan conflict remains constricted and attraction its efforts connected targeting terrorists, avoiding civilian casualties. 

Bajpaee told Fox News Digital that maintaining an anti-Indian stance is important to nan legitimacy of nan Pakistani subject and intelligence establishment, and adopting an assertive subject posture will beryllium basal to assuage home pressures.

Paramilitary soldiers guidelines defender adjacent Pahalgam successful India connected April 22. (Waseem Andrabi/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

"Although I don’t spot an imminent anticipation of Pakistan breaking up aliases a spillover of nan conflict into Iran aliases Afghanistan, nan conflict could fundamentally change nan narration betwixt nan subject and nan civilian authorities and population, which has already been successful decline," Bajpaee said.

The fearfulness for galore experts and policymakers is whether nan clashes lead to inadvertent escalation betwixt 2 nuclear-armed powers. India and Pakistan person an estimated mixed 342 atomic warheads, according to nan Arms Control Association, and their atomic doctrines are motivated by their communal enmity and desire to deter nan other.  

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President Donald Trump has not yet engaged straight pinch Indian aliases Pakistani officials, but said Wednesday he wants to spot them "work it out" and that "if I tin do thing to help, I will beryllium there."