Indus Waters Treaty Freeze: India’s Dam Push Could Dry Out Pakistan’s Crops. What Happens Next?

India is apt to halt regulated h2o releases from nan occidental rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—which were antecedently governed nether nan IWT. While earthy flows will continue, regulated releases from hydro projects specified arsenic Kishanganga and Ratle whitethorn stop, impacting Pakistan’s h2o readiness during highest cultivation seasons.

Projects for illustration nan 330 MW Kishanganga Dam and nan under-construction 850 MW Ratle Dam are expected to beryllium prioritized. With nan pact suspended, India whitethorn move to redesign these projects without earlier constraints, perchance expanding h2o retention aliases modifying downstream flows—both of which person drawn past objections from Pakistan.

India is besides expected to expedite usage of its afloat stock from nan eastbound rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—via infrastructure for illustration nan Shahpurkandi Dam (completed successful 2024) and nan planned Ujh Dam. These efforts could importantly trim nan travel of surplus h2o into Pakistan—estimated astatine up to 9.3 cardinal cubic meters annually.

New Delhi is besides apt to suspend h2o information sharing pinch Islamabad. This includes halting nan speech of real-time travel information and blocking early inspections of Indian hydro accommodation by Pakistani officials.

The dams that matter

-- Kishanganga (Jhelum): Operational since 2018, diverts h2o from a cardinal Mangla Dam tributary.
-- Ratle (Chenab): Under construction, whitethorn further trim flows to Pakistani Punjab.
-- Shahpurkandi (Ravi): Redirects Ravi h2o to Indian channels, reducing Pakistan’s access.
-- Ujh (Ravi): A planned reservoir that would further alteration downstream h2o availability.

Pakistan’s response
Pakistan whitethorn attack nan International Court of Justice aliases nan Permanent Court of Arbitration, though India now contests their jurisdiction nether nan suspended framework.

Diplomatic options see seeking World Bank involution (as nan treaty’s original broker) and rallying support from friends specified arsenic China and nan OIC. Retaliatory steps—such arsenic waste and acquisition disruptions aliases negotiated escalation—are imaginable but whitethorn beryllium constrained by Pakistan’s economical challenges.

How this impacts Pakistan

Agricultural disruption: Roughly 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated onshore depends connected nan Indus system. Disruptions whitethorn trim yields of cardinal crops for illustration wheat, rice, and cotton—critical to GDP and nutrient security.

Groundwater stress: With aboveground flows reduced, farmers whitethorn move to groundwater, worsening aquifer depletion and onshore salinization.

Power proviso strain: Hydropower output from Tarbela and Mangla dams, which proviso ~30% of electricity, whitethorn diminution amid little inflows.

Economic fallout: Reduced yields could effect agrarian employment, trigger defaults, and summation municipality migration pressures connected cities for illustration Lahore and Karachi.

Soil degradation: Reduced irrigation whitethorn worsen salinity issues, already affecting 43% of arable land, risking semipermanent desertification.

Inter-provincial h2o tensions: Diminished travel could spark disputes among provinces, reviving humanities tensions nether nan 1991 Water Accord.

Export setbacks: Agricultural exports for illustration Basmati atom and textiles whitethorn shrink, hitting overseas speech reserves and weakening nan rupee.

Crop shift: Pakistan whitethorn request to adopt water-efficient crops specified arsenic millets, but infrastructure and training gaps whitethorn slow transition.