'if It Weren’t For Bihar And Uttar Pradesh': Sanjeev Sanyal Flags A China-style Fertility Crisis

India’s commencement complaint is falling fast, and it’s clip to extremity organization control, says Sanjeev Sanyal, personnel of nan Economic Advisory Council to nan Prime Minister. With fertility now beneath replacement level, nan existent crisis, he warned successful a station connected X, is demographic decline.

India’s full fertility complaint has dropped to 1.9—below nan replacement period of 2.1. “If it weren’t for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, we would beryllium good beneath nan replacement rate. Even now, we are already beneath replacement levels, and without those states, nan business would beryllium acold worse,” Sanyal said successful an question and reply to nan \Mint newspaper. “This is simply a superior nationalist interest that requires urgent attention.”

India, he argues, has entered a shape of demographic slowdown. The number of yearly births peaked astir 15 years ago.

“Whenever I mention schoolhouse closures, it tends to trigger affectional responses,” Sanyal wrote. “But nan reality is, successful galore regions—now much than half nan country—schools simply don’t person capable children to stay viable. Classrooms are shrinking, and resources are being dispersed thin.”

Despite this trend, organization power infrastructure remains successful place. “Oddly enough, we still person organization power departments operating,” he noted. “These are outdated and must beryllium unopen down, moreover successful Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Not only are commencement rates declining successful those states too, but we are progressively reliant connected them to support our nationalist fertility levels astatine a reasonable threshold.”

Sanyal warns that India is entering nan aforesaid demographic modulation area that has challenged economies for illustration China, Japan, and South Korea, wherever aging populations and workforce shortages person created semipermanent economical strain.

The demographic warning, he argues, is clear. India’s organization power programs are relics of nan past—and whitethorn soon go liabilities successful a state wherever schools are closing, not overcrowding.

Published on: Jun 15, 2025 8:26 AM IST